Welcome to TQDR, brought to you by Overmoro - a weekly newsletter bringing you all the must-know updates and developments in quantum technology adoption. We'll also be bringing our own insights and expert analysis to help your understand the quantum landscape.

This week the world was focused on the details of Majorana 2 announcement, but all we could think was how 2029 is much closer than it seems. So today we’re talking all about timelines, and how the world is (and is not) preparing for them. We’ll also be shouting out some updates from the announcements in last week’s newsletter, and sending you home with some resources, events and quantum homework if you’re so inclined.

Last week Microsoft announced their updated Majorana 2 chip. Microsoft’s hype was around this upgraded chip focused on having qubits that were 1000x more reliable, showing “rapid” progress.

While there is some optimism, critics were fast to jump on the new announcement, highlighting that the technology behind this type of chip has faced multiple paper retractions previously, Microsoft’s new paper doesn’t provide enough data to justify the existence of functioning qubits, and that the goal for this type of system is millions of qubits - Majorana 2 has just 12.

For us the bigger news was that Microsoft cut their timeline in half for a scalable quantum computer to 2029, instead of 2035. This puts them on the same timeline as both Google and IBM. There is clearly a consensus forming on timelines for those building quantum technology, and the mood is optimistic - progress is fast, real and scalable quantum computers will be here soon. What about those of us who have to be ready to use and adopt this technology? Well, that picture is less rosy.

On Monday, EY published their latest Quantum Business Readiness Report surveying 500 senior UK leaders of large companies, and initially the results aligned with those building the technology - 87% of respondents agreed that quantum computing would “significantly disrupt their sector” by 2030.

However, the rest of the survey highlighted the real adoption issue. Only 56% of company boards have had preliminary discussions of quantum, just 12% of organisations said that they had a formalised and fully funded quantum plan, and only 4% are currently working on that plan. These are dangerously low if the world expects to see a scalable quantum computer in just 3 years.

Maybe these results should be taken with caution, after all they are based on UK leaders and the quantum race is global. IBM’s Journey to Quantum Advantage report, released on the same day last week, showcased 12 organisations across the world, from Banco Bradesco to Eon, who have all been experimenting with quantum for several years.

Our read of this situation is that there is a lack of understanding of quantum technologies, and how to adopt them - that’s why we founded Overmoro. Technology leaders clearly understand that quantum is going to be game-changing, but with so many competing technology priorities the strategy and implementation is falling behind.

While timelines for enterprise look worrying - governments have been investigating quantum capability for a long time. Singapore has been funding research in quantum since 2002, and it’s been over 12 years since the UK announced the National Quantum Technologies Programme. Surely governments have learnt from their past mistakes with AI, and will be at the heart of the quantum race?

On the surface things are positive - 32 countries worldwide have announced funding towards a quantum strategy or initiative, with many already committing billions. The problem is that many of these national strategies are either in their early or experimentation stages, or they have deadlines as late as 2035. With 2029 only 3 years away, a 10 year strategy might simply be too slow for the current rate of adoption - is a more aggressive approach to quantum adoption required?

Well, look no further than Quobly raising €115m last week. As part of the national PROQCIMA programme, this investment is just the latest in a strategy of public and private investment in France’s pitch as the dark horse of the quantum race.

The innovative PROQCIMA programme, announced in 2024, is a competition between five French quantum companies (Alice & Bob, Pasqal, Quandela, Quobly, C12) all with different technological and scientific approaches. Initially funded with €500m, after 4 years only the 3 best approaches go forward, and after another 4 years the race is down to just 2.

This bold strategy funds diverse approaches in parallel that hopefully will drive forward innovation faster than a single big bet - maybe fast enough to keep up with Microsoft’s newest timeline. The ambition is there - check out this quote by the co-founder and CEO of Alice & Bob:

The story here is clear - quantum technology companies are shortening their timelines and organisations are struggling to match it. We’re potentially three years from a scalable quantum computer, and the winners will be those who committed early, and made quantum an essential priority.

Each week we share a longer list of interesting things that are going on, more technical bits to get your teeth into, and links for further reading.

We end our newsletter with the fun, cute bits of quantum news - the Qutebits.

And that’s all the news for this week - we’ll see you again next Monday.

Worried about national timelines of quantum computing? Want to know which countries are leading the race? Over the coming months we'll release our first benchmark — the National Quantum Index. It will be the first comprehensive ranking of global quantum adoption, and it will show, clearly, which countries are ahead and which are catching up.

In the meantime, we're publishing regular insights and opening early access to our intelligence platform. This newsletter is the best way to follow the stories that matter and our analysis of them. Subscribe, get in touch, and let's talk quantum.